Donald Trump was convicted of falsifying records to hide a hush money payment to Stormy Daniels. This historic conviction marks the first time a US president has faced and been convicted of criminal charges.
This conviction could significantly influence the US presidential election in November 2024.
A seven-week trial ended with a unanimous jury decision. Shortly after 5 p.m. on Thursday, the New York City jury found Trump guilty on all 34 felony counts. Daniels claimed Trump paid her $130,000 to stay silent about an alleged affair. This payment occurred just before the 2016 election, which Trump won. Although Trump denies the affair, his lawyer Michael Cohen testified he made the payment under Trump’s direct orders. Cohen insisted Trump reimbursed him using funds collected for his election campaign.
Trump recorded this hush money as legal fees. The court identified eleven invoices for legal services, eleven checks paid for legal services, and twelve ledger entries for legal expenses. This systematic falsification showed a deliberate attempt to mislead.
Trump faces up to 136 years in prison, but it is unlikely he will serve time. Paying hush money is not illegal by itself, but each count of falsification carries a sentence ranging from one to four years. Typically, individuals convicted of falsifying business records without other criminal history in New York do not get sentenced to prison. Instead, punishments like probation, fines, or community service are more common. In rare cases where jail time is imposed, it usually does not exceed a year and often involves additional crimes. These additional crimes, such as fraud or grand larceny, are not applicable in Trump’s case.
Sentencing for Trump is scheduled for 10 a.m. on July 11, at the request of his defense lawyer, Todd Blanche. This date falls just four days before the Republican Party’s national convention.
Trump expects to be formally nominated as the party’s presidential nominee at the convention. Despite his felony conviction, Trump can still run for president in the November 2024 election. The US Constitution only requires presidential candidates to be at least 35 years old, natural-born US citizens, and residents for 14 years. Trump meets these criteria, and no provisions bar convicts from running for president.
Trump’s legal team is preparing to appeal the conviction. After sentencing, Trump can challenge his conviction in a New York appellate court and possibly the Court of Appeals. His lawyers expect to argue several points, including potential judicial bias and legal errors during the trial. For instance, they may contend that Judge Merchan, whose daughter leads a firm with Democratic clients, was biased. Additionally, they could argue that allowing jurors to hear Daniels’ testimony was a legal error. They might also claim that the charges were legally improper, suggesting that falsification should have been classified as a misdemeanor rather than a felony. This argument is based on the idea that the alleged conspiracy to violate state election law should not apply to a federal election.
The impact of Trump’s conviction on the US election is a subject of debate.
According to a poll released by NPR, PBS NewsHour, and Marist on May 30, 67 percent of respondents indicated that their vote in November would not be affected. However, former prosecutor and government ethics expert Melanie Sloan told Al Jazeera that the guilty verdict could alienate more moderate constituencies from Trump. A Bloomberg and Morning Consult poll conducted in January revealed that 53 percent of voters in key swing states would refuse to vote for Trump if he were convicted.
Trump’s campaign has been capitalizing on the conviction to energize his supporters. Before the guilty verdict was even released, his campaign sent out fundraising appeals and text messages labeling him a political prisoner.
They also began selling black “Make America Great Again” caps to mark what they called a “dark day in history.” Trump’s conviction is likely to galvanize his base, who view the legal proceedings as politically motivated attacks.
On Friday, Trump will hold a news conference at Trump Tower as part of his presidential campaign. Lara Trump, his daughter-in-law and co-chair of the Republican National Committee, told Fox News that Trump would continue his campaign events and rallies online if he is sentenced to home confinement. This strategy ensures that Trump remains a visible and active candidate despite his legal troubles.
Trump’s hush money conviction adds a complex layer to the upcoming US presidential election. While it is unlikely he will serve prison time, the conviction could polarize voters and influence his campaign strategies. The legal appeals and public responses will shape the political landscape as November 2024 approaches. Trump’s legal battles will undoubtedly be a focal point in his campaign, potentially affecting voter perceptions and party dynamics. How this conviction will ultimately impact the election remains to be seen, but it undeniably adds drama and uncertainty to the race.